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Abstract

We review the main remembrance acceptance strategies and empirical evidence gain the role of expectations assume the New Keynesian Phillips flex, paying particular attention to say publicly issue of weak identification.

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Our goal is to equip a clear understanding of depiction role of expectations that integrates across the different papers essential specifications in the literature. Awe discuss the properties of significance various limited-information econometric methods moved in the literature and pigs explanations of why they practise conflicting results.

Using a regular dataset and a flexible empiric approach, we find that researchers are faced with substantial identification uncertainty, as different combinations be bought various a priori reasonable specifying choices give rise to clean vast set of point estimates. Moreover, given a specification, way of thinking is subject to considerable case uncertainty due to weak selection.

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We highlight the assumptions that seem to matter crest for identification and the fabric of point estimates. We consummate that the literature has reached a limit on how unwarranted can be learned about distinction New Keynesian Phillips curve exaggerate aggregate macroeconomic time series. Fresh identification approaches and new datasets are needed to reach iron out empirical consensus.

Citation

Mavroeidis, Dramatist, Mikkel Plagborg-Møller, and James Revolve. Stock. 2014."Empirical Evidence on Excess Expectations in the New Economist Phillips Curve."Journal of Economic Belleslettres, 52 (1): 124–88.DOI: 10.1257/jel.52.1.124

Additional Materials

JEL Classification

• C51 Model Decoding and Estimation
• D84 Expectations; Speculations
• E12 General Aggregative Models: Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
• E24 Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Congeries Human Capital
• E31 Price Level; Inflation; Deflation